Monday, September 18, 2017

                     SPEAKING  PSEUDOTRUTH  TO  POWER

The CPAC Climate Demolition & Disinformation Derby, with NRO's John Fund, [ FULL DISCLOSURE- Fund is the WSJ editor who in 1989 condensed a 5,500 policy journal article of mine into a half page op-ed], Breitbart London's non-science guy, James Delingpole, perennial K-Street hack lawyer and Junk Science Judo author Steve Milloy and climate blogger turned carbon lobbyist Tony Heller, better known by the pseudonym 'Steven Goddard.' Atticus he ain't.

                                       PLACE  YOUR  BETS !



  • Date: 12/09/17
  • Lindsay Fortado, Financial Times


One of Europe’s largest hedge funds is looking to move into the gambling industry in the UK, as it sets up a new venue where players can bet on the effects of climate change. The project is hoping to tempt climate scientists to put their money where their models are.

The new “climate prediction market” is the brainchild of Winton Capital, founded by David Harding, and is aimed at finding a market consensus on the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and global temperature rises in the future.
The not-for-profit project, which is being funded out of Winton’s philanthropic budget, is hoping to tempt climate scientists to put their money where their models are, and to provide a clear benchmark of the academic consensus at a time of intense interest in man-made climate change.
News of the project comes as the UN General Assembly meeting in New York focuses on the theme of a sustainable planet. Climate change also continues to dominate the political agenda around the world, after President Donald Trump declared he will withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord and roll back regulations on the production of coal.
“With a prediction market, getting the information is the primary objective,” said Mark Roulston, a scientist at Winton who is overseeing the project. “There’s not necessarily a consensus on all the implications of climate change. The idea is to have a benchmark which could track any emerging consensus.”
Under the plan, scientists and experts from around the world will be able to trade contracts based on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and how far temperatures increase, going decades into the future.

Winton  will act as  a market maker  and  subsidise trading, rather than taking a cut  ... The hedge fund will initially  target  professionals in the climate field  to  participate, 

though it will be open to anyone in the UK. It is being run internally at Winton, with employees able to place notional bets rather than using real money. Mr Roulston said they are hoping to launch it externally later this year to universities, and will open it to the public sometime next year.

Sunday, September 17, 2017


President Donald Trump plans to nominate his longtime campaign aide Sam Clovis (aka Jabba the Hut) to head science at the US Department of Agriculture, despite the fact that Clovis lacks a background in science and a congressional rule maintains that the role must be filled “from among distinguished scientists.”

 As an example of  Chief Scientist Clovis' mastery  of the scientific method  here is his defense of Trump supporters fighting with protesters to CNN’s Alisyn Camerota
Camerota: What do you think about the idea that he was suggesting that there would be violence? Threatening that there would be violence?
Clovis: I don’t think he said violence, he said riots…
Camerota: Riots are violence, by definition.
Clovis: I don’t accept that.

Saturday, September 16, 2017

                      FOR  BETTER   JUNK  SCIENCE  ADVISORS
                                      TRY  THE  CHINESE  NAVY


Climate skeptics may soon join a 
key science advisory panel at U.S. EPA.
At least one nominee hopes to use a position on the board to challenge the science undergirding many environmental regulations. One has said in a statement that the world must "abandon this suicidal Global Warming crusade." Another compared people concerned about climate change to "Aztecs who believed they could make rain by cutting out beating hearts."

EPA has submitted 132 names for public comment as possible members of the panel. About a dozen of them have made comments rejecting mainstream climate science...The selection of any of those researchers would be the beginning of a very different advisory board that would bear the hallmark of the Trump administration's position on climate change, said Steve Milloy, [ author of Junk  Science Judo ]  ...who worked on President Trump's transition team for the agency. 
"Had some other Republican won the presidency and a swamp creature taken over the EPA, this would not be happening," he said, "but thank God for Scott Pruitt that he's got the courage to do this."The Heartland Institute—a Chicago-based free-market think tank that pushes alternative climate science—nominated many of the current prospects... Here are some of the skeptical nominees under consideration: 
Edwin Berry, a meteorologist and atmospheric scientist: He has funded his own climate research and says human carbon dioxide emissions do not cause climate change. He has compared those who believe in human-caused climate change to "Aztecs who believed they could make rain by cutting out beating hearts and rolling decapitated heads down temple steps." On his Twitter account, he has called Islam "a death cult" and has encouraged motorists to drive into protesters..."Let's get over this whole thing about climate change being an important thing, because in fact we humans have a negligible impact on climate," he said. "And if we had the Paris Agreement and everything else, it wouldn't do any good anyway." 
Craig Idso, a senior fellow at the Heartland Institute: . His work has centered on highlighting how increased carbon dioxide will benefit plants. 
Paul Driessen, a senior policy adviser at the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, a libertarian environmental think tank...holds that spiking levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide benefit the Earth. "The world must abandon this suicidal Global Warming crusade," the group stated in its founding statement. "Man does not and cannot control the climate." 
Gordon Fulks, a physicist and adviser to the Cascade Policy Institute... He has said those who express concern about climate change are like a "societal pathogen that virulently spreads misinformation in tiny packages like a virus." 
Milloy accused the panels of being " cronies of EPA, they fall in line, they do what EPA wants," he said. "It's extraordinarily rare that they dare to question the EPA and, if they do, then the EPA just ignores them. If they're not rubber stamps, then they're useless."
Heartland Institute Science Director Jay Lehr PhD somehow failed to make the cut. Could Administrator Pruitt  be chary of  glad-handing  an ex-con who did Federal prison time for defrauding the EPA of over $100,000 ?


Climate Models Can’t Even Approximate Reality Because Atmospheric Structure and Movements are Virtually Unknown

Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball
... Models vary from hardware models or simple scaled down versions of reality to complete abstractions. A model car is an example of the former and a mathematical formula with symbols replacing variables of the latter. The problem with the hardware is it is impossible to scale down many things because the physical properties change. For example, it is impossible to scale down the change of ice from solid and rigid to plastic and flowing as occurs in an alpine glacier in a hardware model. In the abstract model, each variable loses most of its real-world properties.

Climate models are abstract models, except they are made up of a multiple of models all interacting with each other. Those interactions bear little resemblance to reality.
In summary,
  • We have virtually no data.
  • This is true even for fundamental variables like temperature, precipitation atmospheric pressure, and atmospheric water content.
  • Data is replaced by symbols that eliminate most of the properties of the natural variable.
  • In many cases the “data” is generated in another model and used as ‘real’ data in the larger model.
  • The models are essentially static representations of average conditions. The one thing we know with certainty is that the Earth’s atmospheric system is dynamic, changing daily, seasonally and constantly over the course of time.
  • The models consistently fail the standard test of scientific understanding and accuracy by producing inaccurate predictions.
Initially, I learned the basics of weather and especially forecasting necessary for aviation. These were expanded when I gave lectures on aviation weather as an operations officer on an anti-submarine squadron flying over the North Atlantic and then for a search and rescue squadron flying in northern and Arctic Canada. I recall one search out of Fort Chipewyan, northern Alberta when we observed first-hand the severe limitations of knowledge and therefore forecast skills.


On Friday’s broadcast of HBO’s “Real Time,” host Bill Maher stated the fact that none of President Trump’s properties in the path of Hurricane Irma were damaged by the storm shows that God doesn’t exist.
Maher said, “But here’s the most amazing thing of all, amid all the destruction in the path of that hurricane, neither Mar-a-Lago, nor Trump’s estate in St. Martin’s, nor any of his golf courses in the path got damaged at all. They all escaped almost completely unscathed, which just goes to show something I have always believed, there is no God.”

Trump has multiple properties in the region affected by the hurricane. NONE of them are damaged. REMARKABLE.
Maher says there is no god. Random chance spared all those properties. At random. Really big storm. Random.
I think it's far more likely God's having a great laugh at the expense of arrogant naysayers by smiling on Donald Trump
    • Avatar

      Amen ...God Bless Donald Trump and America

    • Avatar

      Absolutely divine protection. Every luke warm christian should rejoice that God, the one true living God, protected and blessed his servant Trump. 

      He has given us a sign so we know Trump is allied with good. 
      Hrc was evil. 

      Loved witchcraft, spirit cooking, all sexual deviants, isis, lies, murder, greed, etc. the forces of evil are surrounding Trump but there is a battle. 

      Hrc would have leveraged and concentrated those evil forces to destroy America Praise God

      by DANIEL J. FLYNN15 Sep 2017
      Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta likened the Trump White House to a “clown car” in that “you are never sure who is getting out of the door” Thursday night on All in with Chris Hayes, an MSNBC program hosted by a zealous Democrat who just as zealously embraces the look of a Hale-Bopp Heaven’s Gate cultist.

      To strange people, people appear strange.
      Take Podesta, a UFO aficionado whose truth is out there. He kept a picture of two fork-wielding men cannibalizing another man at a table, entitled “We’re Bringing an Old Friend over for Dinner,” at his office at Hillary Clinton’s Brooklyn campaign headquarters. During that campaign, news hit of Podesta’s invitation to a “spirit cooking” dinner by a performance artist, herself invited by Podesta to Hillary Clinton’s campaign kickoff, who dabbles in the occult. Though a past book and performances under the “spirit cooking” title involved such jaw-droppers as breast-milk-mixed-with-sperm potions and pigs-blood graffiti, Marina Abramovic insists the event she invited the Brothers Podesta to under that name involved no sorcery, spells, or strangeness...
      One of Hillary Clinton’s biggest cheerleaders in the sisterhood (members of the sisterhood hate real cheerleaders), Sally Quinn, outed herself as a practitioner of witchcraft in a memoir released this month. Ben Bradlee’s widow and one of Washington’s most famous hostesses insists she put hexes in candlelight rituals on three people who subsequently died. After a psychic provided a bad reading regarding her son, Quinn unleashed her evil wizardry on the unfortunate woman, who soon died, causing the Washington Post writer to swear off hexes for good.

    Thursday, September 14, 2017


    Bristlecone pines rank among the slowest growing organisms on Earth-  their girth increases by roughly a meter per millennium, and some have sat atop  the California tree line since before the invention of writing.  As the world's oldest trees, they naturally contain the world's oldest living climate record, reflected in the rings of their growth, and play an important role in efforts to understand palaeoclimate.

    But they record a lot more than changes in the weather over time- each  set of rings is a palimsest overwritten by changes in ecology that change micronutrient availability, a capsule history of all the natural fertilizers left behind by generations of animals, dead and alive. In the last half century isotopic systemics and mass specroscopy  have done much to improve and deconvolute the proxy climate record tree rings provide, much as  they have figured in advances in atmosphic chemistry and transport.  Most observers embrace this as normative scientific progress, but some deny the most advanced  instrumental results in favor of 19th century  natural history- guess who?

    Study reveals that Mann’s Bristlecone pine trees may not be good “treemometers” after all

    Dr. Michael Mann used tree ring core samples from Bristlecone pines in the Western United states as one of the most heavily weighted proxies used to make his infamous “hockey stick” Now it seems that even though temperature in these areas has been rising, the Bristlecones aren’t responding to it by increasing their range, and other tree species are jumping ahead in the same area.
    I pointed out some years ago that Mann didn’t seem to be aware of Liebigs Law of the Minimum which regulates plant growth."

    Mike Mann is indeed aware of it- the problem is Watts  incomprehension  of  its  biogeographic meaning- or lack thereof : he  glosses over  the obvious fact that anthopogenic climate change has already contributed to species displacement in  the former Chico TV weatherman's own Californian back yard: Changes that have nothing to do with limiting trace elements or Liebig, who, born in 1803, is better remembered for inventing bullion cubes:

    Watts links to 
     Global Change Biology, article that far from criticizing the "hockey stick," or discussing Liebig's Principle, 

    "shows that the tree line has been steadily moving upslope over the past 50 years in the Great Basin. The region extends from California’s Sierra Nevada, across Nevada to Utah’s Uinta Mountains. Its north and south are framed by the Columbia and Colorado rivers’ watersheds.
    The study also found that limber pine is successfully ? “leapfrogging” over bristlecone pine. They are growing in soils once almost completely dominated by bristlecone pine, and they are moving upslope at a faster rate than the bristlecone pine...
    Earth’s oldest trees in climate-induced race up the tree line
    Bristlecone pine trees in great basin are losing game of leapfrog with limber pine

    Smithers said he doesn’t expect bristlecone pine adult trees to be impacted much by current climatic shifts, as those trees are well-established. But how, if and where new bristlecone pine trees will regenerate is less certain, particularly as other species like limber pine take up valuable space for them to germinate.
    “The things we’re doing today have legacy effects for thousands of years in the Great Basin,” Smithers said. “When those trees do start to die, they won’t likely be replaced because it’s just too hot and dry.”
    The study suggests that land managers identify the specific bottlenecks for a species to live long enough to reproduce, and focus on that stage. For long-lived trees like bristlecone and limber pines, the bottleneck is at the time of their initial establishment, not hundreds and thousands of years into their adulthoods."

    Tuesday, September 12, 2017

                                                FUTURE LIGHT


    Those who realize how the climatw wars  arise from small anthropogenic signals immersed in much natural noise should remember  the photographic reconquest of the vanished past  that began even as the twin towers fell, About a decade ago,  scanning an age-darkened  Daguerrotype of a long vanished frontier sod house, a Nebraska archivist  who wondered what lay in the dark shadow beyond its open door hit a contrast icon , and by the unreasonable power of  Photoshop and mathematical noise filtering, out popped the hitherto invisible interior, brining to first light a domestic scene no Victorian photographer could capture- an invisible image brought back from an era when film had next to no latitude.

    The discovery spread like wildfire on the net, and was soon applied to  everything from Civil War battlefield Deguerrotypes to press Graflex pictures of the Hindenburg in flames.  Imagination , like myth and obsession, can ramify the past  faster than the wreckage of tragedy can decay.

    Each years instant replays of  the 9-11 videotapes  may numb the modern imagination of disaster but older icons, from the Hindenburg to the Holocaust remind us that it can take years to apprehend what our retinas seize in the split second it takes to turn our eyes away.

    Memory is not a static. We are used to its decay, yet sometimes it grows as things once thought lost are  regained. All the elements of ground zero memories,  the flying  paper, the comingled reek of hot metal , wallboard dust and death that once briefly converged into reality may not stay lost forever.  9-10 remains the peak of the annual  hurricane season, but since 9-11 the arts of image enhancement have advanced ever faster ,reversing a long historical trend. The sum of visual information about the past has begun to grow , rather than decay,  with the passage of time , and the capacity to experience the past visaully is overtaking  the ability of the  naked eye to see the present

    There is more to this than Photoshopping the Apocalypse. It’s about technology transcending prior limits  on the transmission of history . The scant recording power of a few  grainy snapshots is all that links us to the world our grandparents saw , but the reality of hyperspectral imaging  raises the prospect of seeing the recent past restored not just to aching clarity, but something approaching  tangibility. A hundred cel phone and security cameras have begun to record urban history at datat rates that outstrip the  capacity of vision and memory alike

    The heat of the Hindenburg's burning and the shudder of the Titanic’s collision have been lost to history, but posterity  may share the visceral impact of the Twin Tower's fall. Data fusion is among those dark arts with a future so bright that its promise to deliver an ever richer past  is a matter of when, not if. What we call high definition television may soon seem like painting by numbers, for digital resolution is doubling fast as Moore's law. Some digital cameras already boast more  pixels than the six million cones and 120 million rods of the human eye  combined ,and their images leave us staring at more than we can see.  A decade ago , the most formidible of these crystaline  retinas were the largest integrated circuits yet made-  a 300 milimeter silicon wafer only  yielded three , each with over ten times the imaging area of the human retina and far better edge-to-edge resolution.

    Cameras with pixel counts higher   that the number of cells  in our retinas will soon become cheap and commonplace.  But will we want to look? Electronic imaging systems absurdly more powerful than the naked eye are an emerging reality--  $12 K already can buy a 160 megapixel  camera and enough silicon memeory  to store a portfolio of its gigabyte images, and a  for  a little more you can get  the Foveon camera  tech that captures color in successive layers of each CCD pixel .

    The future  of the images thus recorded  focuses on raising the tempo of display to expand our visual sensibility, and warping time to improve our depth of vision.  One camera has never been the case in a teeming place like  Manhattan, and some aspire to  seize the vision of the countless thousand of shutters on the scene and fuse it into one seamless montage of 9-11. We now experience it in terms of what scarcely a dozen grainy  and peripheral images took in as the 757’s entered the twin towers, and passed from integrity to oblivion. We have not seen the last of them , and our experience of the towers collapse has already burgeoned into kaleidoscopic acuity.

    The effort of reconstructing the horror of their last seconds repels the mind , but electronic interpolation  makes it child’s play. Soon the integration of the perspectives of a host of witnesses from blocks to miles away will be equally commonplace. Our visions of Ground Zero can only grow  as everything from satellite to seismograph data is declassified, de-convoluted, and merged into new maps of hell. If another catastrophic attack ever comes, posterity will be doomed to know it  far more intimately than the last.

    Whatever electronic cameras can capture , display technology can put before our eyes. There is still a  bandwidth gap when it comes to animating  the twenty one thousand pixel-wide , seven thousand five hundred line-high images already being captured , but a meter and a half wide screen display  can render every 8-micron pixel in a two-handed  hypercamera's sprawling  focal plane at a dot size too fine for the naked eye to percieve.  when, not if  4K  thin screen TV  gives way to 32k screens with gigabit resolution, thechnology will have overtaken our eyes, making  every viewer a cyborg of sorts, even if that at first merely means keeping a magnifying glass handy to regognize your friends in the crowd when bowl games air.

    This is already well within the drawing board limits of both silicon crystal growth and  field emitter plasma displays , albeit  it may take an honest kilowatt to drive a first geeration hypertelevision's screen a very hot medium indeed. The first such virtual windows on the world may occupy the sashes of real ones, their heat exchange bustles adding to the urban cacophony of air-conditioner noise. When hundred million element GaN or other LED display arrays arrive , you may get your window back, but prepare to have your eyeballs popped in earnest .
    Postmodern architecture may be playful, but data fuson is not a game. Its progress produces not fantasy, but ever better counterfeits of reality, and counterfeit reality is all recorded images are.  Sometimes they are all we get to see.  9-11's closest survivors saw least of all, for even the largest spaces that they occupied, the sky lobbies, were overshadowed by the scale of the planes themselves. We have not yet  seen a single image from within the warren of hundreds of corridors and thousands of rooms on  13 floors that, for one last apocalyptic second ,were filled with a maelstrom of steel and humanity  Do we want to imagine, let alone see one agonizing millisecond at a time what occurred within? The external cameras can only show the aircraft entering, and the collision debris explosively departing from the towers facades. Are we ready, as surgeons must be, to compare the computer's sterile tomographic vision with the bloody anatomy of history?

    Many of the digital frames that recorded the towers death throes from within  have yet to be released. It remains to be seen if any can deliver the resolution of an old fashioned Press Graflex. With a sharp lens a postage stamp frame of 35mm  Kodachrome  can record more than 8 megapixels , and larger formats far more . Even the digital pocket cameras  common in 2001 could deliver ten times the  detail of TV , for the acuity with which tragedy is recorded has perversely, or mercifully, regressed since the days of the Hindenburg. TV needs far less resolution than the grainiest Great Depression newsreel. But what matter more is which way the cameras were point. The gaze of some vanished witnesses may have briefly caught  New Jersey through a hollow with the unmistakable silhouette of an airplane seen head on.Wtc_x_light_morial_1 We have not seen this last visual testament but before long we will see its simulacrum. Unless its reality is rediscoved first.

    The future may hold another reversal of photographic fortune.We have so far been spared many images from within the 110 floor labyrinth,for though TV cell phones had already appeared upmarket in London and Tokyo, they were still rare in downtown Manhattan.  So we remain blisfully ignorant of what  was seen within the 13 floors that for a last apocalyptic second were filled with a maelstrom of steel and humanity. Do we want to imagine it, let alone see it one agonizing millisecond at a time? Nobody asked us if we wanted to see dinosaurs stalking corporate lawyers ,or the first light of the Hiroshima bomb, but no one can keep Hollywood from projecting their shadows  on the cave wall of popular culture.

    Eventually , that wall will fill the space within- holographs record and display the phase of light , not just its frequency and intensity, and elements of the iconography of 9-11 never to be recovered  may be seamlessly- and in a strange sense validly , retrieved by decompressing the surrounding digital images that have survived,letting real and virtual pixels merge. Aided  by  algorithmic tools like Monte Carlo modeling, and disciplined by  the signal to noise demands of the Nyquist criterion, imaging technology is bent not just on creating an avatar of Ansel Adams's  razor sharp  giant camera , but on making it yield virtual eyewitness to history-  less than a holograph, more than a dream.

    It takes more than science to weld this alloy of art and reality , but the  animators who make scary movies scary  are for hire, as is the rapidly evolving software that embodies the imagination of disaster.  It  takes a concerted effort of denial not to imagine what a ghostly plane's-eye view of the impact is ready to alight from the  silicon storyboard, taking   our vision with it . Room by room, and row by row ,the two hurtling airframes will tear once again though their targets. An approximation of that Gran Guignol view has already been produced. Most of it is still sealed from view as forensic evidence, but it’s too big  a subject to stay hidden for long from the virtual light of day. For now , the impact events remain stick figure cartoons ,generated as a finite-element model for engineers and expert witneses to study, but transfuse the same data set  with production money and it will swiftly evolve  onto something hard not to mistake for flesh and blood.

    The decision lies less in the realm of taste than the temptation to turn the mere existence of vast reams of data into what may be at once an obscenity and act of homage to the bitter truth - one of these generations, it is going to happen. There is too much information awaiting the dark arts of data fusion to forever bar the recreation of 9-11, for  both the towers and  the aircraft existed as computer graphics and numerical models  long before they were reified in metal and concrete. Every digit of  that data has survived, but what do the survivors want to remember? What can we afford to forget?

    This much is certain-some governments revel in surveilance, and in constructing Tony Blair's  communitarian Panopticon of street cameras , the next PM may be setting a speed trap for history. Likewise, Google and others offering free gigabytes of image storage are creating the mother lode for future data miners. A decade ago , winnowing so massive a data stream  was unthinkable, but as the  power of parallel architecture  is realized in quantum computation, every line of sight, or plane of focus ,captured by a cell phone camera may yield a bit or two  to fit into a re-rastered chronicle of universal history that grows ever  clearer with the passage of time .

    Will this augur a new historiography, or merely recall  recall Luis Borges vision  of an empire smothering beneath a map made in its own image. Had he lived , Borges blind eyes would be open to the fact that we are missing more than ever before, because accelerating the capture of history cannot quicken our ability to see.

    Monday, September 11, 2017

                                                    GOT A  LIGHT ?

    •  11/09/17  The Times 
    As Hurricane Irma batters Florida, with Anguilla, Barbuda and Cuba clearing up and Houston drying out after Harvey, it is reasonable to ask whether such tropical cyclones are getting more frequent or fiercer.
    The answer to the first question is easy: no. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change put it recently: “Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century.” The trend in numbers of major hurricanes making landfall in the United States has been slightly downward over the past century. Harvey and Irma have ended an unprecedented 12-year hurricane drought, in which not a single category 4 or 5 hurricane made American landfall. So whatever global warming is doing or will do, it is not so far increasing the frequency of such storms...
    Let’s assume that there is a trend towards slightly fewer but slightly more intense hurricanes.
    What does it mean for policy? Pause to notice one truly spectacular feature of Harvey and Irma: how few people they have killed so far. By stalling near the Texas coast, Harvey caused huge floods in HoustoN, not quite rivalling those of 1935 in the city but still devastating to many people. Yet they killed only about 60 people. Compare this relatively low number (given the huge population of Houston) with the 10,000 dead in Galveston in 1900, or the 138,000 who died in Cyclone Nargis in impoverished Burma in 2008.